The White House said on Thursday that Russia had launched two short-range ballistic missiles into Ukraine using missiles provided by North Korea in the last week. This is a significant “escalation” of Pyongyang’s backing for Moscow and could have far-reaching effects on the conflict in Europe as well as security on the Korean Peninsula.
The National Security Council spokesperson, John Kirby, stated at a White House briefing that the missiles, which were manufactured in North Korea, were fired at Ukraine on December 30 and January 2. According to Kyiv, these were among the minimum of 500 missiles and drones launched at Ukraine during the New Year’s holiday.
According to him, Russia launched numerous missiles on January 2 in contrast to the single missile used in the strike on December 30 that landed in a field. According to Kirby, the effects of the missiles fired on January 2 are still being evaluated, even though they were a component of a “massive” Russian attack.
“Russia has been forced to look to like-minded states for military equipment due in part to our sanctions and export controls, which have caused them to become increasingly isolated on the world stage,” Kirby stated in the briefing. “We have been publicly warning that North Korea is one of those states.”
According to Kirby and analysts who talked with CNN, the Korean Peninsula would be affected 7,500 kilometres (4,600 miles) east by the use of North Korean weaponry in the conflict in Ukraine.
Using the abbreviation for North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Kirby added, “This is a significant and concerning escalation in the DPRK’s support for Russia.”
Kirby stated, “We anticipate that North Korea and Russia will take note of these launches.”
According to analysts, Pyongyang can obtain information from the use of North Korean missiles in Ukraine that is not possible from a testing programme that has witnessed the firing of dozens of weapons over the past several years as part of leader Kim Jong Un’s missile programme.
According to Joseph Dempsey, research associate for defence and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, “It will be interesting to see how these missiles perform in a more operational environment and outside of North Korea’s propaganda machine, particularly any indication of accuracy and indeed the guidance systems utilised.”
Russia’s use of the missiles against Ukraine, according to Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, allows North Korea to obtain information on how they breached defences that are comparable to those that South Korea and the US might erect on the Korean Peninsula.
Technically speaking, he predicted that North Korea would be curious to see how well their rockets perform against American missile defence systems.
Speaking at the White House, Kirby stated that Pyongyang’s capacity to advance its missile programmes is not the only factor having an impact on South Korea and the surrounding area.
“We believe that Pyongyang is looking to Russia for military support in exchange for its support, including fighter planes, surface-to-air missiles, armoured cars, equipment for producing ballistic missiles, war materials, and other cutting-edge technologies,” Kirby stated.
“This would have significant security ramifications for both the Indo-Pacific area and the Korean Peninsula.”
The points Kirby highlighted are those where it is thought that North Korea’s enemies in East Asia, primarily South Korea, the US, and Japan, have a significant edge over the reclusive country.
To try to break North Korea’s air defences, for example, all three have the very modern F-35 stealth fighter fighters at their disposal. However, the F-35 advantage may be much diminished if Pyongyang were to obtain more recent Russian surface-to-air missiles along with sophisticated tracking radars.
According to Lee Jang Wook, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defence Analyses’ Centre for Security and Strategy, it is also possible that Russia is giving money to Pyongyang (KIDA).
According to Lee, “North Korea’s weapons will act as another export revenue” for Pyongyang, which will be the first and largest advantage.
And this income might provide further funding for the mass production of new nuclear weapons, according to Lee.
According to Kirby and the researchers, Russia is probably benefiting right away from any North Korean arms import.
It is improbable that the North Korean SRBMs will offer a superior capability over anything already in the Russian arsenal. Rather, the primary advantage would be numerical, since it would strengthen Russia’s diminishing missile reserves and offer an extra channel of delivery, according to Dempsey.
According to Panda, “Russia will be able to continue deep strikes without depleting its missile stocks” thanks to the North Korean rockets. According to Kirby, the North Korean missiles may be shot from a deeper location within Russian territory, where launchers are more shielded from Ukrainian counterattacks by Moscow’s air defences. The missiles have a range of up to 900 kilometres, or around 550 miles.
Additionally, Moscow benefits from a North Korean supply, according to Panda.
Given the physical border between Russia and North Korea, it will be practically hard for Western powers to halt transfers as long as Pyongyang is ready to continue collaborating with Russia.”
All of it points to a concerning future for Ukraine.
Kirby said, “We expect Russia to use more North Korean missiles to target civilian infrastructure in Ukraine and kill innocent civilians there.”
