Three months prior, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a vow to a populace shaken by a horrifying day of Hamas strikes.
Netanyahu said, “The IDF will immediately use all of its strength to destroy Hamas’s capabilities.” “We’re going to destroy them.”
There are indications that the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) are adjusting their goals as they enter a new phase of their conflict with Hamas in Gaza.
“The historical record is not particularly supportive of military operations aimed at eliminating deeply ingrained political-military movements,” said Bilal Y. Saab, Chatham House associate fellow for the Middle East and North Africa,
“The leadership of the IDF is fully aware that their only option is to significantly weaken Hamas’s military capabilities,” Saab said.
Israel claims to have defeated hundreds of Hamas militants, including some high-ranking members, and to have partially demolished the organization’s extensive tunnel network beneath the enclave. In that sense, Israel has had considerable success.
However, obstacles still exist, and the finish line is far off. In times of conflict, few nations establish timelines. Israeli officials have issued a warning about an extended conflict that may go until the end of 2024 or beyond.
“The leadership of the IDF is fully aware that their only option is to significantly weaken Hamas’s military capabilities,” Saab stated.
Israel claims to have defeated hundreds of Hamas militants, including some high-ranking members, and to have partially demolished the organization’s extensive tunnel network beneath the enclave. In that sense, Israel has had considerable success.
However, obstacles still exist, and the finish line is far off. In times of conflict, few nations establish timelines. Israeli officials have issued a warning about an extended conflict that may go until the end of 2024 or beyond.
A “new method of fighting”
The aim Netanyahu outlined on October 7—destroying Hamas—was grandiose, illusive, and, in the opinion of many commentators, unachievable.
“We’ve seen this kind of mission fail over the years numerous times; it can never be completed,” Saab declared.
Given that Hamas has influence well beyond Gaza, Israel would be extremely ambitious to defeat the group completely, assuming it could be accomplished at all.
Netanyahu restated his objectives for the conflict in a speech commemorating the anniversary of the attacks: “To eliminate Hamas, return our hostages, and ensure that Gaza will no longer be a threat to Israel.”
However, it’s still unclear if the IDF leadership considers defeating Hamas to be its primary priority. Israeli media reported that IDF intelligence commander Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva listed military objectives in a speech on Thursday but omitted the elimination of Hamas.
Additionally, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant presented plans on Thursday for the next stage of the conflict in Gaza, highlighting a renewed emphasis on targeting Hamas officials who are thought to be in the southern region of the enclave as well as a new battle strategy in the north.
IDF operations in northern Gaza will include “special operations, aerial and ground activities, the destruction of terror tunnels, and raids” during the third phase, according to Gallant.
quoted Yohanan Plesner, the president of the Israel Democracy Institute and a former Kadima party member in the Knesset, as saying, “This phase will be less intense, but it will take more time.”
There has been noticeable progress in the last three months, according to many commentators, if the more realistic goal is a significant reduction in Hamas’ military capability.
“To ensure that Hamas can no longer effectively govern the Gaza Strip will be the definition of success, not the capture or killing of every Hamas operative,” Plesner stated. “Hamas is set up like an army, with brigades, regiments, and command and control centres. This leadership structure is under severe attack and being taken apart.
According to Army Radio, Netanyahu stated last week when speaking to reporters in Tel Aviv that the Israeli military is “fighting with force and new systems above and below the ground” and that it had killed 8,000 Hamas fighters in Gaza.
cannot confirm this number. Nearly 23,000 people have died in Gaza since the start of the conflict, according to the Health Ministry, which is managed by Hamas. The ministry does not make a distinction between fighters and civilians; nonetheless, it is suggested that women and children account for almost 70% of those killed or injured, both in Gaza and in the occupied West Bank.
The Israel Defence Forces in December that Israel thought Hamas had roughly 30,000 militants in Gaza before the start of the conflict on October 7. According to the IDF, the combatants were split up into five brigades, 24 battalions, and around 140 companies. Each brigade included anti-tank missiles, snipers, engineers, and a rocket and mortar array among its capabilities.
Search for the leaders of Hamas
Additionally, Israel claims some success in hitting the underground shafts used by Hamas, a complex that is notoriously hard for IDF forces to access. This Monday, the IDF made public a video that it said demonstrated the demolition of a tunnel beneath Gaza’s main hospital, Al-Shifa Hospital, which it claimed Hamas had dug.
It published further films last month that it said depicted a system of tunnels connecting the homes and workplaces of key Hamas figures, including Muhammad Deif, Yahya Sinwar, and Ismail Haniyeh.
However, Israel has not yet succeeded in its larger mission of tracking down and eliminating the key Hamas figures in Gaza.
Saab declared, “Intelligence reigns supreme here.” Senior Hamas leaders must be eliminated, as officials like Gallant have stressed time and again. In late December, the defence minister declared that Sinwar will “meet the barrels of our guns soon.”
A prominent member of the Islamist Palestinian organisation, Sinwar was in charge of strengthening Hamas’ armed branch before serving as the organization’s political and civilian head and establishing significant new connections with neighbouring Arab nations.
Commanders can be simply replaced with groups such as these. Nobody in Hamas is indispensable, in my opinion,” Saab said. “But who knows if that might have a trickle-down effect, especially with people who have military responsibilities, if you take out the symbolic heads of the organisation.”
It doesn’t appear probable that the Palestinians ensnared in Gaza, where a humanitarian catastrophe has reached unprecedented proportions, will receive any respite from Israel’s latest phase of its campaign.
However, Netanyahu could be more inclined to give in to domestic pressure, which has been increasing especially due to the over 100 captives that Hamas captured on October 7 and their prolonged detention.
According to Israel, there are still 25 captives in Gaza who are believed to be dead, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office informed on Friday. It means that 107 hostages from the Hamas assault from the previous year are presumably still alive.
In the war’s next phase, the release of those captives is still an objective, but if it is not achieved, political pressure will mount on a resolute leader whose popularity among Israelis has only decreased since October 7.
Plesner stated, “There’s a huge gulf. There was a clear disparity from day one—there is support for the war goals and the IDF, but trust in the Israeli government is at an all-time low.”
