In the first head-to-head debate of the 2024 campaign, Republican contenders Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis square off on Wednesday, both aiming to land a crucial blow that would put them in a position to fight Donald Trump alone.
The CNN debate, which takes place five days before the Iowa caucuses, is the two candidates’ last opportunity to alter the course of events before the historic election’s first vote, in which the former president is the clear favorite to capture the GOP nomination for a third time in a row.
Trump is skipping the event, continuing his policy of defying political convention. This is indicative of a campaign that has been more decimated by the courts considering his numerous legal lawsuits than by conventional visits along the route to the White House.
This contrast was evident on Tuesday when Trump appeared before an appeals court in Washington, DC, to hear arguments from his legal team that he should be granted complete presidential immunity in light of his attempt to void the results of the 2020 election. The case highlighted the importance of the 2024 election by revealing Trump’s belief in an unrestricted, all-powerful president, which may portend a potential second term.
The former president, who is still the party’s most powerful figure, will only be put to the test in the primary if a single contender manages to unite all of the opposition from other Republicans. In the same way that Trump emerged victorious in 2016 from a fragmented field, the dreams of those Republicans searching for someone else may be shattered if that doesn’t happen in the next few days. A fresh CNN survey indicates that Haley’s lead against Trump in New Hampshire has shrunk to single digits, but the state’s primary, held a week after Iowa, is still firmly in Haley’s favor.
Thus, the debate on Wednesday may be a significant occasion. Voters have not yet returned their ballots, therefore nothing has been determined. Nonetheless, Trump’s commanding position demonstrates that neither Haley nor DeSantis has been able to address the crucial query of the campaign: how to take advantage of his 91 criminal accusations and attack on American democracy on January 6, 2021, without upsetting GOP supporters who have supported him. Their inability to do so is a sign that the party has been under Trump’s influence for a long time, that many grassroots conservatives have believed his deceptive allegations of voting fraud in 2020, and that they are all under political persecution for his legal entanglements.
How DeSantis and Haley may come at each other
Both Haley and DeSantis have presented well-reasoned presidential programs and unique perspectives on the party’s future. The governor of Florida has pledged to deliver Trump’s right-wing populism in a more controlled and successful manner than he did during his first term in office.
After his 99-count tour of Iowa, DeSantis is positioning himself as the only serious contender who is truly paying attention to conservative voters who detest the political establishment by adopting tough stances on immigration and culture war issues and fighting feuds with Washington “elites.” “Trump is campaigning on his problems. Haley is running on behalf of her funders. DeSantis declared, “I’m running for your issues,” during an Iowa CNN town hall last week.
Haley is criticizing both Republicans and Democrats for increasing the national debt and calling for a return to more conventional pre-Trump conservatism along with an internationalist foreign policy a la Ronald Reagan. Additionally, she has pledged to recruit non-hard-core Republicans, a message that might have some merit given that several fictitious matchup surveys show her easily defeating President Joe Biden in comparison to other GOP contenders. At a town hall meeting in Iowa on Tuesday, Haley stated, “The only way we’re going to win the majority of Americans is if we go forward with a new generation of leaders who go forward with the answers for the future while letting go of the negativity and baggage from the past.”
Haley and DeSantis have both handled Trump’s criminal allegations with caution. Haley makes a euphemistic plea to Republican supporters who are tired of the former president’s antics, scandals, and legal entanglements by promising a respite from the “chaos” he starts. DeSantis promises to carry out “Make America Great Again” initiatives more skillfully. Though Trump would be a hazardous choice given his propensity to alienate more moderate voters in crucial swing states, his domination of most Republican race surveys suggests that grassroots GOP supporters may not be prepared to move on.
There are two political careers at risk.
For both Haley and DeSantis, this debate on Wednesday marks a crucial turning point in their personal lives. Furthermore, since just two candidates will be competing in the GOP primary for the first time, the confrontation may highlight advantages and disadvantages that were not fully explored during the multi-candidate free-for-alls.
Haley is moving at a rapid pace. In the never-ending game of establishing expectations that define presidential elections, Hillary is hoping for a great performance on Monday to propel herself into the New Hampshire primary, which is her best opportunity to win and injure Trump. After CNN’s survey indicated her ascent in the Granite State, the former US ambassador to the UN entered the discussion. This has put more pressure on former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to withdraw from the campaign since he is competing for the same undeclared and crossover independent votes as Haley and may jeopardize her prospects of defeating Trump.
Christie’s resignation has been spearheaded by New Hampshire GOP Governor Chris Sununu, who has backed Haley and has maintained that one anti-Trump contender could defeat Trump in the GOP primary. However, Christie’s campaign firmly refuted Sununu’s assertion on CNN on Tuesday that there had been talks about stepping out within the former New Jersey governor’s staff. Christie, who was formerly a backer of Trump but is no longer close to his old buddy, has long said that he is the only well-known figure in the campaign who is prepared to criticize the president. On Tuesday, he declared, “I would be happy to step aside for someone who was running against Donald Trump.”
before speculating on the 2028 presidential contest and accused Haley of vying for vice president.
Another indication of Haley’s increasing power is the fact that Trump has been intensifying his criticism of the former Cabinet member, accusing her of opposing his travel ban from many Muslim-majority nations during his administration and denouncing her immigration policies.
Haley has improved in the polls after strong debate performances, despite some perplexing gaffes, such as her refusal to credit slavery as the reason for the Civil War in her first event following a Christmas hiatus. But if she wants to establish herself as the leading opponent of Trump, she will have to step up her campaign on Wednesday night.
Haley has undoubtedly improved her political standing during the campaign, while DeSantis has had a difficult time adjusting to his first exposure to the harsh national spotlight. He was seen as a protégé of Trump until the Florida governor challenged him for the nomination. His resounding win in 2022 and the implementation of strict measures made him a formidable new political force. DeSantis has fought against the notion that he is uneasy speaking in public, and his once-ambitious national campaign may have boiled down to a one-shot contest in Iowa in an attempt to avoid following in the footsteps of his fellow Florida high flyers, Sen. Marco Rubio and former governor Jeb Bush, who both crumbled under Trump’s attacks in 2016.
DeSantis is probably going to capitalize on two recent gaffes made by Haley, including her remarks on slavery and her remark to a New Hampshire audience that their state will “correct” the caucus results. He will be under a great deal of pressure to present a more engaging and multifaceted stage presence than he has in some of the earlier debates.
Given his ability to win over evangelicals, a significant voting constituency in the state, and Trump supporters who like the former president’s hard-right ideals but dislike his lack of discipline, the governor of Florida appears a better fit for Iowa than Haley. Therefore, any outcome other than a solid second place in Iowa would prompt existential concerns about his candidature.
DeSantis leaving or Haley unexpectedly losing her seat may lead to the head-to-head matchup that the former president’s detractors have long desired. However, the campaign thus far has shown that many Republican supporters are neither looking for a younger version of Trump nor do they want to go back to the times before him. What they want is Trump.
For this reason, the former president is certain that he can avoid getting into a heated argument with his opponents once more when he spends Wednesday night in the cordial setting of a Fox News town hall in Des Moines.
