When the 23 million people who live on the self-governing island of Taiwan cast their ballots on January 13, all eyes will be on Taiwan.
Taiwan is an important flashpoint in Beijing and Washington’s struggle for dominance in this area, so whoever wins the presidency on Saturday will have a significant impact on ties with both countries.
Furthermore, it will have significant ramifications for allies like Japan who are concerned about Beijing’s assertive actions in the South China Sea as well as the island’s neighbours.
Given that the People’s Liberation Army of China has increased pressure on the island over the past year with a record number of invasions, most voters rank China as one of their top worries.
Although Beijing has claimed the island for a long time, relations have become particularly strained under President Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
China ceased formal communications with Taiwan as a result of her cautious but resolute defence of the island’s sovereign status. Beijing claimed that Taiwan’s rejection of the One China principle—the idea that Taiwan is an integral part of China and will eventually become one—was the cause of the suspension.
The Taiwan party is presenting a war or peace choice to voters.
China is exerting more pressure on Taiwan to hold elections.
When US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei in 2022, Beijing became so enraged that it launched extensive military manoeuvres in the Taiwan Strait that resembled a near-blockade of the island, making matters worse. The US said that Xi Jinping had accelerated the unification process later that year.
Taiwan has been closer to the US throughout this time, even obtaining new weaponry worth billions of dollars from Washington.
Beijing harbours strong distaste for DPP vice president William Lai, who was considered the front-runner in the presidential contest before the polls ended on January 2. Based on his earlier, more outspoken days, it views him as a supporter of Taiwanese independence, although he now disputes that assessment.
Beijing may step up military pressure in the Taiwan Strait if the DPP wins a historic third consecutive term in office. Additionally, it may disrupt supply routes to Taiwan’s outer islands or internet connections.
Mr. Xi and Wang Yi, his foreign minister, have issued several warnings that the Chinese military is ready to annex Taiwan if necessary. But considering how much a full-fledged conflict would cost China at a time when its economy is already faltering, many analysts think the likelihood of one is minimal, at least for the time being.
The US has a significant naval presence in the area, with bases spanning from Australia in the south to Japan in the north, so any escalation between China and Taiwan has the possibility of becoming something bigger and more hazardous.
In the case of a Chinese invasion, Washington has not yet made it clear precisely how it will assist; also, it is not obvious if Japan, which is home to the greatest number of US soldiers in the area, will engage in combat.
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Washington believes that the prospect of its engagement will discourage Chinese aggression. Furthermore, a lot of commentators point out that Beijing has a policy of “peaceful unification” as evidence that it wishes to prevent violence.
Taiwan’s future president will be responsible for overseeing these numerous options and alliances, as well as the US relationship, which is vital and may alter if Donald Trump is elected president.
According to the US, a victory by the Kuomintang (KMT), the opposition, might strengthen China’s influence over Taiwan. Still, pundits believe Washington is also concerned about a Lai presidency.
A war in Taiwan, should it break out, would be catastrophic in terms of the number of lives lost and the damage done to the island’s democracy. It would also destroy the world economy. Nearly half of all container ships travel through the Taiwan Strait each year, making it a vital hub for international trade. Taiwan is also the country that produces the majority of the semiconductors used in modern devices, such as cars, refrigerators, and phones. Any disruption in this supply chain would cause the global economy to implode. Sanctions against China would only exacerbate the harm to the global economy.
Several estimates suggest that a total interruption of China’s trade would result in a $2.6 trillion drop in global trade in added value or 3% of global GDP.
Rebuilding relations with China, Taiwan’s largest trading partner and greatest danger, should be a major priority for whoever takes over as leader of the island. Two of the main domestic topics on the ballot are jobs and the cost of living.
Analysts predict a split government, with various parties controlling the legislative and executive branches. Some are optimistic that a less formidable KMT and a more seasoned DPP may find the ideal balance between boosting the economy and maintaining good relations with China, even in the face of potential political deadlock.
