Every day there is more fear that the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza might spark a full-scale Middle East war.
Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib We feel and we’re afraid of it.” “We want to prevent the war from getting worse. A regional battle is undesirable because it puts everyone in danger. perilous for Israel, Lebanon, and the nations that around Israel,” he declared, emphasising that “a regional conflict is terrible for all.”
A wider-ranging battle could not be in the critical national interests of any of the big nations in the region, though, and that is the one factor that could prevent such a catastrophe.
Even if extremist organisations and important governments seem to be approaching the edge, there is still optimism that the political, military, and economic fallout from escalation will be so severe that they will refrain from going further.
There’s another violent occurrence almost every day. For example, the US killed a commander of a militia supported by Iran on Thursday near Baghdad, which Washington attributes to the group’s attacks on US forces in the area. Tehran’s proxies have frequently attacked US forces in Iraq and Syria who are entrusted with containing ISIS with rockets and drones.
Over the border in Lebanon, fighting is escalating between Israel and Hezbollah, another pro-Iranian organisation. Another worrying indication was provided by Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant’s warning to US Ambassador Amos Hochstein on Thursday that there was not much time left to establish a “new reality” on Israel’s northern border that would let people return to their homes. Meanwhile, Hezbollah authorities who are in charge of the region where Saleh Al-Arouri was slain are enraged by Israel’s alleged strike on the senior Hamas leader in Beirut.
Following a string of attacks on commercial ships, US Marines this week sunk three boats connected to the Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, in another concerning development. According to Central Command, US helicopters were shot initially and retaliated in self-defence. Following the decision by certain shipping companies to send their vessels on a less cost-effective path around Africa, the US and about a dozen allies formed a maritime task force to safeguard commercial vessels in vital water routes in the region.
This week’s twin bombing near the tomb of former Iranian intelligence leader Qasem Soleimani, which ISIS has subsequently claimed, shook the already uneasy area and may put further domestic pressure on Iran’s government as it plans its larger Middle East manoeuvres.
Why a broader conflict could be averted
The interests of several of the region’s major brokers, such as Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah, may lie in maintaining a high degree of tension that ends short of war. However, the US is concerned that all of this playing with fire might lead to another confrontation in the Middle East that could involve Americans. The Biden administration is keen to steer clear of such a situation, particularly during an election year.
Norman Roule, a former US national intelligence manager for Iran, Jake Tapper on Wednesday that “there are no strategic drivers, (for) the main regional or external actors to ignite a regional war, if only because the goals of such a conflict would be unclear, and this would immediately disrupt their significant political and economic stability.” Iran and its allies, however, have several reasons to continue and perhaps step up the frequency and severity of their current attacks on Israel.
“What should worry us is if any of these actions lead to an incident that calls for reprisals or the involvement of other players, who then compound the situation and create the very traditional conflict that we all want to avoid.”
Rapid deterioration on several fronts might occur at any time, making the situation extremely dangerous. Thousands of rockets that Hezbollah may use to strike Israeli people indicate that heightened fighting could turn deadly very rapidly. President Joe Biden would be forced to take significantly more forceful military action than he has thus far if Iranian proxies launched a mass casualty strike against US forces. Biden would have to make similar decisions if a US or ally ship was seriously damaged in the Red Sea. Furthermore, the arrival of an Iranian warship in the Red Sea this week raises the prospect of misunderstandings when competing navies operate nearby in dangerous areas.
The scope and savagery of the Hamas operation and Israel’s retaliation, which has destroyed large swaths of Gaza’s residential neighbourhoods, triggered a series of events entwined with the Middle East’s fault lines. The area had seen a brief period of relative peace before the ensuing shockwaves, during which the administrations of Trump and Biden, together with their allies, attempted to strengthen ties between the Gulf States and Israel. The resulting tensions seem to have dashed White House expectations of any informal and implicit de-escalation of hostility towards Iran, despite accusations from Biden’s political opponents that he has not been tough enough on the Islamic Republic and its nuclear programme.
The desire of the important parties to stay out of trouble might be a deal breaker. Each power has solid reasons to stay away from the edge given the potential cost of a regional conflict and the worldwide military, political, and economic fallout that would result from it:
According to its administration, Israel is already deeply involved in a protracted conflict in Gaza that will go on for months. Israeli people would experience bombardments in a full-scale conflict with Hezbollah that might be even worse than those Israeli cities endured last year from rocket assaults by Hamas. Thus, the attack on Arouri—which Israel was responsible for, a US official on Wednesday—may have been a bet that Hezbollah wouldn’t launch a large counterattack. However, given the several fronts of dangers they confront, Israeli authorities feel they are already enmeshed in a regional war, even as the rest of the world worries about the conflict growing.
The United States is trying to keep things from getting out of control by stepping up a technique that it has been using for weeks. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is returning to the region, where he will likely face increased pressure to defuse tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. Hezbollah controls Lebanon, and the group fears that a catastrophe could exacerbate the country’s precarious political, economic, and humanitarian conditions. The state of American forces in Syria, Iraq, and the ocean appears vulnerable. The Biden administration seems to be trying to restore some degree of deterrence about Iranian proxies without accidentally tipping off the regional fire.
Additionally, Washington and its allies have threatened the Houthi rebels in Yemen with dire repercussions if they continue to assault vessels in the Red Maritime, crucial maritime lanes for the world economy. Thursday that the White House’s tolerance of the rebels is almost at an end. However, direct attacks on their land-based launch sites might undermine a settlement that would end Yemen’s bloody civil war in addition to drawing allied forces further into the fight. Politically, Biden is stuck.
Republicans frequently criticise him for being overly lenient towards Iran and its allies. However, any deterioration of the regional circumstances may also support Republican assertions that the Democratic president, who is 81 years old, is incapable of leading. Biden faces risk because the US has consistently failed to force its will on the Middle East over the past 20 years. It’s not easy to assert US dominance.
Iran could benefit more by exerting lower-level pressure on Israel and the US through its extensive network of proxy organisations than it would from engaging directly in combat. The latter may prove to be destabilising both militarily and economically and heighten political pressure on the religious government, whose popularity has already skyrocketed following the bombings. However, there is also a chance that leaders, who might believe that taking a more assertive stance overseas will help solve domestic issues, will be forced to act due to the intense political pressure. Only fifteen months ago, the murder of a woman under the care of Iran’s despised morality police set off a wave of anti-government rallies that confronted the country’s clergy.
Professor Vali Nasr of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies expressed his concern about the state of tensions on Wednesday. However, he went on to say, “I don’t think the Iranians want an expanded conflict,” bringing up the fact that some Iranians thought Israel was attempting to provoke Iran into open combat. “I believe the thinking is that the United States does not want a larger conflict, at least among Iranians, Hezbollah, and maybe other nations in the region, not necessarily Israel. Nasr stated, “President Biden is not in favour of a larger conflict.
Nevertheless, if Washington is unable to stop Israel from escalating the confrontation, these estimates may need to be revised. Thus, Benjamin Netanyahu’s government’s strike on the leader of Hamas in Beirut, which the US said it was unaware of beforehand, appears to be a hazardous decision. It might exacerbate already tense ties with the US following the White House’s repeated rejection of its requests for a reduction in the severity of the operation in Gaza.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah is the most influential political force. It functions as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’s extension in Iran. Even though it possesses an enormous missile armament directed towards Israel, in the case of a full-scale conflict, its strength may be greatly reduced. Iran’s influence in the area would significantly decline with a diminished Hezbollah. Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, issued a warning on Wednesday, saying that Israel would face “limitless” retaliation if it continued to wage war in Lebanon and that the assassination of Hamas commander Arouri would not go unpunished.
However, Lebanese Foreign Minister Bou Habib that he thought the paramilitary organisation would not go so far as to escalate the conflict with Israel. “There are numerous reasons why we believe that this won’t occur, as both they and we, the Lebanese people, desire no conflict,” he declared. “We can’t even seem to order them. Though we’re not saying that, we can persuade them. And I believe that this is the way it is going.
