Taiwan’s governing Democratic Progressive Party won the presidency for the third time in history on Saturday, defying China’s cautions that their reelection would heighten the likelihood of hostilities.
Taiwan’s vice president at the moment, Lai Ching-te, announced his triumph on Saturday night after the two leading opponents against him both gave up.
“I want to thank the Taiwanese people for writing a new chapter in our democracy. We have demonstrated to the world how much we value democracy. Lai informed the journalists, “This is our unwavering commitment.” He also revealed that he had taken congratulations from his two opponents over the phone.
Taiwan’s governing Democratic Progressive Party won the presidency for the third time in history on Saturday, defying China’s cautions that their reelection would heighten the likelihood of hostilities.
Taiwan’s vice president at the moment, Lai Ching-te, announced his triumph on Saturday night after the two leading opponents against him both gave up.
“I want to thank the Taiwanese people for writing a new chapter in our democracy. We have demonstrated to the world how much we value democracy. Lai informed the journalists, “This is our unwavering commitment.” He also revealed that he had taken congratulations from his two opponents over the phone.
The raucous election campaign, which demonstrated Taiwan’s dynamic democratic credentials, was fought over a variety of livelihood concerns in addition to the difficult issue of how to handle China, the country’s massive authoritarian neighbor, which has become more aggressive and powerful under its leader Xi Jinping.
The outcome demonstrates that voters support the DPP’s position that Taiwan is a de facto independent state that ought to strengthen its defenses against China’s threats and strengthen its ties with other democratic nations, even at the cost of Beijing’s military intimidation or economic penalties.
Additionally, it is a further jab at Xi, who has pledged that Taiwan’s ultimate “reunification” with the mainland is “a historical inevitability,” after eight years of using increasingly harsh measures against the island.
Similar to the incumbent president Tsai Ing-wen, who is unable to run for office again due to term limitations, Lai is publicly despised by the leaders of the Chinese Communist Party, and Beijing-Taipei relations are unlikely to improve as a result of his win.
Following Tsai’s election, China severed diplomatic ties with Taipei and increased military, economic, and diplomatic pressure on the self-governing island, making the Taiwan Strait a key geopolitical flashpoint.
Despite never having had sovereignty over Taiwan, the ruling Communist Party of China considers it to be a part of its territory. Xi has stated time and time again that the Taiwan problem “should not be passed down generation after generation,” connecting the mission to his mid-century aim of “national rejuvenation,” even though previous Chinese Communist leaders have pledged to eventually accomplish “reunification.”
The DPP emphasizes the fact that Taiwan is independent of the Chinese Communist Party and that its 23.5 million citizens alone should decide the island’s destiny.
Beijing cautioned Taiwan’s voters to “make the right choice” and “recognize the extreme danger of Lai Ching-te’s triggering of cross-strait confrontation and conflict” ahead of Saturday’s vote.
Throughout his campaign, Lai emphasized the significance of protecting Taiwan’s arduously acquired democracy.
“Even though we aspire for peace,” he said to reporters earlier this week. “Taiwan will take the lead in promoting peace and stability alongside the international community.”
China has repeatedly sanctioned Hsiao, his running companion, for being a “stubborn secessionist.”
With Lai’s win, the US is attempting to defuse tensions in its relationship with China and keep the rivalry from turning violent. Taiwan’s largest international supporter, the United States, was strengthened under Tsai’s administration, leading to an increase in military sales and assistance for the island.
Whatever person holds the top position, US officials have stated that Washington will continue its long-standing stance towards Taiwan. By previous tradition, the Biden administration would send an unofficial delegation, which includes former top officials, to Taipei after the election, according to senior sources.
The delegation visit “will be a signal, a very symbolic way of supporting Taiwan,” said T.Y.Wang, a professor at Illinois State University.
The outcome on Saturday is yet another serious setback for Taiwan’s Kuomintang, who support improved ties with Beijing and haven’t been in the White House since 2016.
Professor of political science at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University Lev Nachman said that although Lai must make some economic adjustments due to widespread complaints about low pay and expensive housing, he is expected to largely adopt Tsai’s stance on matters like foreign policy and cross-strait relations.
He claimed that a major focus of Lai’s campaign has been convincing people both at home and abroad that he is Tsai Ing-wen 2.0.
Beijing will not accept that.
A few days before the election, the Taiwan Affairs Office of China declared that Lai was taking a provocative and confrontational route by following Tsai, which would push Taiwan “closer and closer to war and recession.”
According to analysts, China may choose to reserve a more aggressive response till May when Lai enters office, or it may increase economic and military pressure on Taiwan in the upcoming days and weeks to express its disapproval.
China could make a big deal out of a DPP win at least a few times this year, according to Nachman.
Beijing also possesses a vast array of coercive tactics in its arsenal.
China terminated preferential tariffs on some Taiwanese imports under a free trade deal before to the referendum. It may extend the range of products it targets or perhaps put the deal on hold completely.
China can enhance the military pressure it applies to Taiwan by deploying additional fighter planes and warships near the island’s skies and oceans. This is a method that China has been using more frequently recently.
However, Taiwan’s security officials stated before the election that they did not anticipate China taking major military action immediately following the election. They gave as reasons the unsuitable winter weather, issues with the Chinese economy, and Beijing and Washington’s attempts to mend fences after a bilateral summit in November.
Furthermore, experts pointed out that while heightened military tensions may heighten the likelihood of mishaps and errors in judgment, they do not always herald an impending clash in the Taiwan Strait.
“China isn’t going to go to war just because the DPP is in power,” Nachman stated.
“The DPP’s eight years in office have undoubtedly been difficult, but they have managed to establish an uncomfortable middle ground rather than start a conflict. And the hope is that we can maintain this uncomfortable quiet without resorting to war, even under a Lai president.
